plausible

This word describes an argument or a story that sounds believable on the surface, regardless of whether it is actually true. It suggests a level of logical consistency that allows a listener to accept a claim without immediate skepticism. It is frequently used in legal, scientific, or investigative contexts to narrow down possibilities.

There is often a subtle tension between plausible and true. A story can be perfectly plausible while being a complete lie, whereas a true story might be so bizarre that it is not plausible. This distinguishes it from words like "likely," which focuses more on the probability of occurrence rather than the logical coherence of the explanation.